Dr Pamelia Riviere

 On October 7, 2023, a coordinated and unprecedented assault led by Hamas on Israel triggered the beginning of the Gaza War. During this attack, Hamas and other Palestinian armed factions abducted a total of 251 individuals from Israel, encompassing a diverse group that included children, women, and elderly individuals. Notably, nearly half of these abducted individuals were foreign nationals or possessed multiple citizenships, which included some Negev Bedouins who often traverse the border regions. Reports indicate that the captives are believed to be held in several undisclosed locations across the densely populated Gaza Strip. As of October 2024, it was assessed that of the hostages, 53 were classified as civilians while 11 were identified as military personnel, according to news agency AFP.

 By February 8, 2025, 138 hostages had been successfully returned alive to Israel through various means: 105 were released as part of a significant prisoner exchange agreement concluded in late 2023, four were released unilaterally by Hamas as a gesture of goodwill, eight were successfully rescued during an operational mission by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and 21 were part of a subsequent 2025 prisoner exchange deal.  Unfortunately, the remains of 39 hostages were also repatriated to Israel; among these, three individuals were tragically killed by friendly fire shortly after escaping and were mistakenly identified as enemy combatants by IDF forces. The bodies of 36 other hostages were recovered through extensive military operations.

 Israel has publicly reported that 75 hostages lost their lives either during the initial assault on October 7 or while being held in Hamas custody. As it stands, there are still 73 hostages being held captive within the Gaza Strip, with 70 of these individuals abducted on October 7, 2023, while the remaining three were captured during prior engagements. Intelligence evaluations  conducted by the IDF suggest that at least 35 of the remaining hostages may have unfortunately already perished during the war.  At the outset of the conflict, Hamas proposed a sweeping hostage exchange strategy, advocating for the unconditional release of all its hostages in exchange for all Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. As of October 2023, Israeli authorities reported detaining approximately 5,200 Palestinians in its prisons, a number that included 170 minors. The negotiation landscape has seen the involvement of multiple countries, with Qatar taking a leading role in facilitating discussions between Israel and Hamas.

 On November 22, 2023, a critical agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas aimed at advancing humanitarian conditions. This deal entailed the release of 150 Palestinian prisoners alongside a four-day ceasefire, which provided a temporary window for Hamas to release around 50 hostages, focusing primarily on women and children. By November 30, 2023, the final day of the ceasefire, a total of 105 civilian hostages had been liberated, including 81 Israelis, 23 Thai nationals, and one Filipino. On February 12, 2024, during a military operation dubbed Operation Golden Hand, two Argentinian-Israeli civilians were successfully rescued. However, on September 2, 2024, Hamas issued stern statements indicating a shift in strategy, threatening to execute any remaining hostages if the IDF attempted another military rescue, thus escalating tensions further.  Notably, on January 15, 2025, it was announced that an agreement had been concluded to facilitate the return of hostages, where Hamas would release 33 of the 98 remaining hostages in the first phase of the plan.

This group comprised vulnerable individuals, including infants, children, women, elderly men, and younger men suffering from significant health issues, while Israel would reciprocate by releasing over 1,000 Palestinians who are currently detained in Israeli prisons.  The Gaza Ceasefire involves a complex series of phases, including detailed negotiations for the exchange of hostages and prisoners. The ongoing process for the exchange of hostages and prisoners in Gaza consists of multifaceted and carefully structured stages. The initial phase is  focused on the swapping of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. To date, several hostages have been traded for Palestinian detainees.  Recently, American-Israeli Sagui Dekel-Chen, Russian-Israeli Alexandre Troufanov, and Argentinian-Israeli Iair Horn were released during the sixth exchange under the ceasefire in Khan Younis, a city in southern Gaza. These individuals appeared to be in considerably better physical condition than the three hostages released the previous week, whose deteriorating health prompted significant concern and outcry from Israeli officials.  In contrast, a number of Palestinian prisoners liberated during the exchange were in urgent need of medical attention, highlighting the stark differences in the circumstances of those being released.

On Saturday, Israel freed 36 Palestinian prisoners who had been serving life sentences. Of this group, 24 prisoners were not permitted to return to their homes and will be deported. One individual was returned to Gaza, while the remaining 11 were sent to the occupied West Bank. Several of these prisoners were reported to have suffered from health issues severe enough to necessitate hospitalization prior to their release. Some of the released prisoners claimed they had endured beatings for hours even before being liberated.  So far, a total of 19 Israeli hostages and over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners have been released as part of the initial ceasefire arrangement that began on January 19. Israel and Hamas successfully completed the sixth exchange on Saturday, which has helped to sustain a fragile ceasefire.  In this latest exchange, Israel released 369 Palestinian prisoners and detainees in return for the Israeli hostages captured by Hamas.

From Israel's perspective, these prisoners are categorized as terrorists, whereas many Palestinians view them as freedom fighters resisting what they see as prolonged Israeli military occupation. Among those newly released, 36 had received life sentences for their involvement in fatal attacks against Israelis.  Out of these, twelve were allowed to return to their residences in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem. Medical staff indicated that four of the released Palestinians required immediate medical care, and the 24 serving life sentences are now being exiled. The remaining 333  Palestinians who were freed had been detained in Gaza following Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, which ignited the current conflict. Israeli forces have detained hundreds of individuals in Gaza during this period and have often held them without trial.  As part of the ceasefire negotiations, Israel has agreed to release over 1,000 of these detainees on the condition that they were not involved in the October 7 assault.

 Recently, the truce has appeared to regain stability. Earlier in the week, Hamas announced it would delay the scheduled release of hostages, accusing Israel of violations related to the ceasefire agreement. Amidst this tension, President Trump urged Israel to abandon its negotiations with Hamas and “let all chaos ensue.”  Following this, Hamas announced it would proceed with the releases after consulting with mediators from Egypt and Qatar, who were expected to facilitate overcoming the obstacles and resolving disputes.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office expressed appreciation for Trump’s “clear and unequivocal” position, asserting that it positively influenced Hamas's decision to continue with the releases on Saturday. However, Hamas's decision to halt further releases of captives stemmed from the continuous violations by Israel. Reports indicate that Israeli officials have acknowledged that Hamas was justified in claiming that Israel breached the ceasefire agreement, according to The New York Times.

 Three Israeli officials and two mediators, speaking on the condition of anonymity, confirmed that Israel had not fulfilled its commitments under the agreement. Despite the ongoing exchanges, Netanyahu warned of the possibility of resuming military action in Gaza if the captives were not released by Saturday at noon, a move that would effectively jeopardize the ceasefire.  The New York Times also noted that Netanyahu himself is a significant hurdle in extending the ceasefire, having delayed critical negotiations. Although discussions were anticipated to start last week, Netanyahu only permitted a delegation to travel to Qatar—one of the key mediating  nations—at the beginning of this week. As it stands, the current ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is set to transition into its second phase, scheduled to commence on March 1.  This phase aims to establish a more permanent ceasefire, along with a substantial Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. Crucially, this arrangement would allow Hamas to retain its political authority in the region.

Despite substantial military setbacks that have diminished Hamas's operational capabilities, the organization still maintains a significant role in Gaza's political landscape. The absence of a viable alternative leadership remains a challenge, as there are currently no prominent groups or individuals positioned to assume control in the aftermath of any political shifts.  Hamas has expressed its readiness to release all Israeli captives at once. In a recent statement detailing its vision for the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, spokesman Hazem Qassem stated, “We are prepared for a second phase in which the prisoners will be exchanged all at once, contingent on reaching an agreement that leads to a permanent ceasefire and a complete withdrawal from the Strip.” Earlier, Hamas announced that it would release the dead bodies of four Israeli captives on Thursday, followed by six additional living captives on Saturday.

“Israel’s Hostages and Missing Families Forum said Wednesday that it had received the “heart- shattering news” that Shiri Bibas and her two young children, Ariel and Kfir, are among the four dead hostages expected to be released from Gaza on Thursday. “Tomorrow will be a very difficult day for the state of Israel. A wrenching day, a day of grief. We are bringing home four of our beloved hostages, deceased,” he said. Netanyahu added: “We are grieving, we are in pain, but we are also determined to ensure that such a thing never happens again,” CNN reported. Hamas claimed in November 2023 that they had been killed in an Israeli air strike. The group claims this move demonstrates its flexibility and commitment to the ceasefire deal, urging Israel to respond in kind.

 However, President Donald Trump has proposed a U.S. takeover of Gaza, suggesting the permanent displacement of Palestinians from the region. On February 06, Israel's defense minister instructed the military to prepare for "voluntary" departures from Gaza following Trump's suggestion of the Gaza Riviera Plan. US-Israeli discussions are underway in the wake of Trump's controversial proposal, which has faced widespread international condemnation. The Arab world hopes that Trump and Netanyahu will not introduce additional obstacles during the second phase of the ceasefire. Saudi Arabia's support for a two-state solution, which envisions East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine, could offer a glimmer of hope. However, the question remains: will this vision become a reality or merely a distant dream?  Dr Pamelia Riviere is a freelance writer and analyst