Dr. Pamelia Riviere

 In an electrifying turn of events, the world watches as a monumental conflict unfolds, pitting Israel, the United States, and Iran against each other in a gripping battle that will redefine the landscape of global politics. This is not just a war; it’s a high-stakes showdown where alliances are tested, strategies are forged, and the fate of nations hangs in the balance. Buckle up for twelve days of intense confrontations, tactical maneuvers, and unprecedented drama that will leave you on the edge of your seat.

Trump's Orwellian call for peace transitioned to positive diplomacy. 

Donald Trump declared a "spectacular military success" following the US strikes on Iran, stating, "Tonight, I can inform the world that the strikes resulted in the complete obliteration of Iran's primary nuclear enrichment facilities." In the early hours of June 22nd, according to Iranian time, Trump announced the "magnificent" bombing of three significant nuclear sites in Iran. Tensions escalated in the Middle East as Iran condemned the US airstrikes on its crucial nuclear facilities. President Trump referred to the bombing of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan as a "spectacular military success," asserting that these sites were "completely obliterated" and cautioned of "far greater attacks" if Iran does not seek peace while they were engaged in negotiations in Geneva. In retaliation, Iran's Atomic Energy Organization described the assaults as a "barbaric violation" of international law, particularly the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, claiming the IAEA showed indifference and promising that the nuclear program would persist, fueled by "nuclear martyrs" and revolutionary scientists. 

Iran's leader faced unconditional surrender threats of assassination, including the possibility of regime change from Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump. Iran condemned the US attack as a severe breach of international law and warned of "everlasting consequences." Iran has consistently claimed that its nuclear program is exclusively for civilian use. In March, Trump's own intelligence chief, Tulsi Gabbard, informed lawmakers that the intelligence community "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon." However, Trump dismissed these conclusions, stating, "My intelligence community is wrong." 

In reaction to the US strikes: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi criticized the timing of the US and Israeli assaults. Iran has cautioned Trump that there would be a response to the US bombing of three essential nuclear enrichment facilities, with its foreign minister warning of "everlasting consequences" for the "outrageous" strikes. Iran's elite military unit, the Revolutionary Guard, alerted that US bases and troops in the region were "vulnerable." 

Furthermore, Iran's Parliament voted in favor of closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for global oil supplies. Shortly after, Iran retaliated by launching a new barrage of missiles at Israel, which initiated the conflict by targeting Iran's nuclear sites ten days prior. Iranian missiles struck residential areas in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa, resulting in injuries to around 80 individuals. President Trump maintained that the US strikes had "totally obliterated" Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities and urged Tehran to "make peace" or risk "far greater" attacks in the future, as reported by the BBC. 

Trump's Startling Ceasefire Announcement: A few hours later, Trump disclosed a startling "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran via social media. He indicated that the truce would commence "in approximately six hours" after each nation had "wound down" its military actions. Earlier, Iran had targeted a US military base in Qatar with missiles in retaliation for the US bombing of its three key nuclear sites. All rockets were intercepted, and there were no casualties, suggesting the attack was carefully planned, with both Qatar and the US being alerted by Iran in advance. President Trump expressed gratitude to Iran for providing "early notice" of the assault and asserted it was time to pursue peace, as reported by BBC News.

A dilemma arises: What prompted the swift call for a truce? 

Netanyahu was excited about the US's historical pattern of attacking all seven Muslim nations, which he had desired to see end for many years. The outcomes of the US's actions against Iran will unfold in time. The nuclear proliferation treaty now faces challenges following the US attacks on Iran. An article from Indian Express-News revealed that former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stated that multiple countries are ready to provide Iran with nuclear warheads considering the US strikes on Iran's three nuclear facilities: Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow, adding that President Trump is responsible for "pushing America into another war." Despite this, Trump rejected Medvedev's claim.

Donald Trump declared a "spectacular military success" following the US strikes on Iran, stating, "Tonight, I can inform the world that the strikes resulted in the complete obliteration of Iran's primary nuclear enrichment facilities." In the early hours of June 22nd, Trump announced the "magnificent" bombing of three significant nuclear sites in Iran. Tensions escalated in the Middle East as Iran condemned the US airstrikes on its crucial nuclear facilities. 

However, what drove Trump to propose a ceasefire? Was it a fear of his potential downfall, impeachment, the assault on the US base, an impending economic collapse, or the threat of a Third World War? It raises questions about how the US President could overlook the IPAC Lobby and advocate for a ceasefire. Was the sudden airstrike on Iran and the subsequent ceasefire part of IPAC Lobby's strategy? 

Or did the bombing efforts fail to achieve their goal of destroying Iran's nuclear facilities due to Iran's removal of nuclear materials? Perhaps, the fear of escalating conflict looms if Iran truly advances toward a nuclear strike on Israel.

John Mearsheimer revealed the Israeli lobby's desire for the war with Iran. The Israeli lobby, known as IPAC, significantly impacts U.S. policy, pressuring Trump into this bizarre conflict with Iran. Although Trump projects strength, he appears less assertive in this regard compared to his previous term, particularly concerning Israel. According to Professor John Mearsheimer, Trump lacked the capacity to confront the lobby meaningfully during this conflict. Mearsheimer noted that Obama was fully aware of the lobby's considerable power; however, he believed their policies were detrimental to the United States. Obama felt that Israel was a burden he had to carry, an Albatross on the neck. While he didn’t express this sentiment publicly, it was certainly a feeling he harbored. He endured considerable backlash from the lobby and put in extensive effort to navigate the situation while managing relations with Russia and China. 

When Trump took office in 2017, he initially indicated he would uphold the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but he abandoned it in 2018. The JCPOA pertains to the 2015 agreement intended to curtail Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, involving several global powers including the UK, China, France, Germany, Russia, and the U.S. This agreement is commonly referred to as the Iran nuclear deal. 

As the Trump administration began collaborating with Steve Witkoff, the JCPOA initially served as a reference point. Then, unexpectedly, the IPAC lobby made a complete reversal, asserting that Iran should not be permitted any nuclear enrichment, a stance that contradicted the JCPOA provisions. The lobby proclaimed that Trump couldn't pursue the JCPOA pathway. Essentially, any gains achieved during Obama's presidency were undone by the lobby’s influence during Trump’s term. 

The U.S. President Trump has minimal flexibility concerning Israel, which led to an abrupt decision to target Iran's nuclear capabilities. The prior assaults on six Muslim nations—namely Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Sudan, and Somalia—as well as sudden strikes on Iran, indicate that a trade-off between American presidents and the lobby has persisted for decades. Consequently, attacking Iran has been a long-standing objective. The IPAC lobby is remarkably strong, to the extent that Netanyahu appears to have more sway than the American President due to the lobby's influence. Consequently, Trump had to listen to the demands of specific Jewish Republican senators. 

The United States seems to be on a downward path, with the lobby likely gaining more power within Congress. This trend is already apparent both domestically and globally. 

The Earth and the Sky were the Watcher: William Scott Ritter Jr. is an American former United States Marine Corps intelligence officer said that Natanj has faced numerous strikes—at least twice, if not three times—from Israel before the U.S. initiated its own attacks. However, the assault on Natanj did little to stifle Iran's nuclear ambitions. The two large bombs dropped by B2 bombers caused only superficial damage, leaving merely large craters in the ground. Similarly, the targeted facilities in Isfahan were more complex and fortified than anticipated, proving resilient to the strikes. 

The missiles fired failed to achieve the intended level of destruction, leaving the operation lacking both military and scientific value. Instead, it seemed more like a political gesture than a genuine military effort. The three sites that were targeted were situated deeper than U.S. intelligence had estimated, turning out to be strongholds that the United States could not damage or breach. 

In response, Iran skillfully relocated its facilities, a shift verified by satellite imagery. Alarmingly, up to 60 percent of the uranium could be converted into weapons-grade material, contradicting earlier assumptions that such targets could be neutralized. Assertions made by individuals like Hegseth were far from accurate; this operation turned out to be a total failure. Any military operation requires exceptional skill and professionalism, both of which were conspicuously absent in this case. The Trump administration blatantly ignored the principles outlined in the United Nations Charter, which all nations—including the United States and Israel—had ratified. 

The President's actions endangered the lives of tens of thousands of American troops stationed in unstable regions like Syria, Turkey, and various Arab nations, creating a significant risk of heavy casualties. Today, the United States is perceived as a rogue nation, undermining its credibility internationally. In this context, Russia has sought association with China, advocating for a legally grounded international framework via the UN. 

America's gross irresponsibility and blatant illegality don’t negate international law; nevertheless, they embolden other nations to escalate tensions. Amid this unrest, Israel instigated conflict under the guise of Iran being a threat, although no immediate danger was present. The potential for escalating radicalization between the U.S. and Iran remains high: the cycle of violence is likely to continue as Iran's historical grievances against Israel remain unaddressed. 

The cost of war is measured in lives lost: Recent Israeli airstrikes in Gillan Province resulted in the deaths of 9 individuals and injuries to 33 innocent civilians. Among those who were killed and injured, 16 individuals were women and children. 

According to Iran, over 400 people, including 13 children, have died and at least 3,056 have been injured since Israel commenced its attack on June 13. In Israel, at least 24 individuals have lost their lives due to Iranian strikes.

 In the latest developments, despite the overwhelming casualties, Israel continues to assert that its operations in Iran were a "tremendous success." Israel claims to have fulfilled all its objectives "and much more" after nearly two weeks of assaults on Iran. Nevertheless, Israel has consented to a ceasefire. 

Qatar played a crucial role in facilitating the truce by mediating discussions with Iran. As reported by a senior White House official, Israel accepted the ceasefire terms on the condition that Iran halt its attacks within their borders, which Iran agreed to, per CNN's reporting.

 Trump asserts the existence of a 'forever' peace, although lasting peace has become elusive in this region. Families of Israeli hostages are urging the extension of the Israel-Iran ceasefire to encompass Gaza. The global community is eagerly anticipating a sustainable peace in the Middle East, particularly in Gaza. Achieving this requires an end to the genocide in Palestine and a comprehensive truce in Gaza before Trump's declaration can hold true: “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, ITS TIME FOR PEACE!” 

Dr. Pamelia Riviere is a freelance writer and analyst